Abstract: Objective To explore the predictive value of carotid atherosclerosis plaque for ischemic stroke events in the elderly patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation(NVAF). Methods A total of 303 patients with NVAF were enrolled in the study,and were divided into the atrial fibrillation with stroke group (n=134) and the atrial fibrillation without stroke group (n=169) based on whether they suffered from ischemic stroke events. The predictive factors of ischemic stroke in the patients with NVAF were analyzed by single and multivariate regression analysis, and the predictive value was further evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC)curve. Results Among the patients with atrial fibrillation and stroke, 75.4% presented with carotid atherosclerosis plaque, compared with 66.3% in the patients without stroke (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that carotid atherosclerosis plaque and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score were the independent risk factors for ischemic stroke in the patients with NVAF.ROC curve analysis showed that the predictive value of carotid atherosclerosis plaque combined with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was better than that of CHA₂DS₂-VASc score alone. Conclusions In the elderly patients with NVAF, carotid atherosclerosis plaque is closely related to ischemic stroke events. The value of carotid atherosclerosis plaque combined with CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting ischemic stroke events may be better than CHA₂DS₂-VASc score alone.

Key words: atrial fibrillation, carotid atherosclerosis plaque, ischemic stroke, aged