Abstract: Objective To investigate the predictive value of deep vein thrombosis risk score scale (Wells), venous thromboembolism risk scale (Caprini) and deep vein thrombosis risk factor evaluation scale (Autar) for postoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in the elderly patients with lower limb fracture. Methods A total of 96 elderly patients with lower limb fracture receving surgery in the Seventh Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January 2018 to January 2019 were enrolled. According to the results of the patients’ color Doppler ultrasound examination, patients with postoperative DVT were selected as the positive group (n=54), and patients without DVT were selected as the negative group (n=42). All the patients’ general clinical data were collected, and they were assessed with Wells, Caprini and Autar. The predictive value of the three kinds of thrombosis risk assessment scales for postoperative DVT in the elderly patients with lower limb fracture was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results Compared with the negative group, the scores of Wells, Caprini and Autar in the positive group were significantly higher (P<0.01). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity of Wells were higher than those of Caprini and Autar (0.903 vs 0.792 vs 0.810, 88.9% vs 64.8% vs 77.8%, 90.5% vs 85.7% vs 88.1%, resepectively). Conclusions Wells has the highest predictive value for the risk of postoperative DVT in the elderly patients with lower limb fracture, while Auter and Caprini are lower.

Key words: thrombosis risk assessment scale, lower limb fracture, deep vein thrombosis, predictive value, aged