Abstract: Objective To investigate the risk factors for dysphagia in the elderly and to construct a dysphagia risk assessment model. Methods A total of 251 elderly people in 18 military cadre retirement centers in Chengdu were enrolled in this study. The Eating Assessment Tool (EAT-10) was used to evaluate the occurrence of swallowing disorders in the elderly, and comprehensive geriatric assessment including sarcopenia, Barthel index and nutritional risk screening were conducted. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors for dysphagia in the elderly, and a dysphagia risk assessment model was constructed. Results The prevalence rate of dysphagia in the enrolled elderly was 42.23% (95%CI:36.12%-48.34%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that long term use of sedatives and hypnotics, history of coughing upon drinking water, and low Barthel index were the risk factors for dysphagia in the elderly. The area under the curve of the nomogram model constructed by the above risk factors was 0.796 (95%CI: 0.738-0.855). Bootstrap method was used for internal validation, with a C-index of 0.593 and an average absolute error of 0.020, indicating that the model had good discrimination and calibration. Conclusions Long term use of sedatives and hypnotics, history of coughing upon drinking water, and low Barthel index can increase the risk of swallowing disorders in the elderly. The dysphagia risk assessment model developed using the three risk factors has good predictive ability in the elderly.

Key words: aged, dysphagia, influencing factor, risk assessment model, nomogram