Abstract: Objective To investigate the predictive value of geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) combined with procalcitonin clearance rate (PCTc) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for short-term prognosis in the elderly patients with sepsis. Methods Ninety-seven patients with sepsis admitted to our hospital from October 2018 to November 2021 were enrolled, and the patients were divided into the death group (n= 42) and the survival group (n= 55) according to the 28-day survival state. The basic clinical data of patients were collected, and the levels of GNRI, PCTc and NLR were compared between the two groups. Spearman’s correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between GNRI, PCTc, NLR and APACHE Ⅱ score. The predictive value of GNRI, PCTc and NLR for short-term mortality in the elderly patients with sepsis was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve. Results The levels of GNRI and PCTc were significantly lower and the levels of NLR and APACHE Ⅱ score were significantly higher in the death group than those in the survival group (P<0.05). Correlation analysis showed that GNRI, PCTc were negatively correlated with APACHE Ⅱ score(r=-0.357,-0.401,P＜0.001), and NLR was positively correlated with APACHE Ⅱ score(r=0.367,P＜0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) of GNRI combined with PCTc and NLR for predicting short-term death in sepsis patients was 0.850 (95%CI: 0.763-0.914, P<0.001), with a sensitivity of 85.71% and a specificity of 72.73%. Conclusions The levels of GNRI and PCTc are decreased and the level of NLR is increased in the elderly patients with sepsis. The combination of the three indexes has certain predictive value for short-term death in the elderly patients with sepsis.

Key words: nutritional risk index, procalcitonin clearance rate, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, sepsis, short-term prognosis