2012—2021年江苏省老年人主要伤害死亡变化趋势

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-9198.2025.02.019

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2012—2021年江苏省老年人主要伤害死亡变化趋势,为开展老年人伤害预防干预工作提供科学依据。方法利用2012—2021年江苏省老年人主要伤害死亡资料,根本死因采用国际疾病分类(ICD-10)进行编码,通过计算4种主要伤害的粗死亡率和标化死亡率来描述主要伤害死亡状况,并应用Join-point Regression Program进行趋势分析。结果 2012—2021年,江苏省老年人总伤害和道路交通事故的标化死亡率呈现波动性上升趋势,意外跌落则呈现为稳步上升趋势[平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分别为2.2%、1.4%、7.5%,均P<0.05];自杀及后遗症的标化死亡率呈现明显下降趋势(AAPC=－4.4%, P<0.001),溺水呈现为波动性下降趋势(AAPC=－1.5%, P<0.05)。总伤害在≥85岁组上升趋势最高(AAPC=4.1%, P<0.001),道路交通伤害是60~74岁人群第一位死因,≥75岁人群死因以意外跌落为主。城市老年居民道路交通事故死亡率呈上升趋势(AAPC=3.1%, P<0.001),农村老年居民自杀、溺水死亡率呈下降趋势(AAPC分别为－6.4%、－2.1%,均P<0.05)。结论 2012—2021年江苏省老年居民伤害死亡率呈上升趋势,意外跌落标化死亡率上升尤为明显,是未来江苏省老年伤害干预的重点。

关键词: 老年人, 伤害死亡, 趋势分析

Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends of injury-caused deaths among the elderly in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021, and to provide scientific basis for injury prevention and intervention. Methods The death data of the elderly from major injuries in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021 were analyzed, and the underlying cause of death was coded by the International Classification of Diseases(ICD-10). The crude death rate and standardized mortality rate of the four major injuries were calculated to describe the primary death rate. The trend analysis was performed by the Join-point Regression Program. Results From 2012 to 2021, the standardized mortality rates of total injuries and road traffic accidents of the elderly in Jiangsu Province showed a fluctuating upward trend, while those of accidental falls showed a steady upward trend [average annual percent change(AAPC) was 2.2%, 1.4% and 7.5% respectively, all P<0.05],and the standardized mortality of suicide showed a significant downward trend, and the drowning showed a fluctuating downward trend(AAPC was －4.4%,－1.5% respectively, all P<0.05). The increase in total injuries was highest in the 85 and older age group(AAPC=4.1%, P<0.001), and road traffic injuries were the first cause of death among people aged 60－74 years old, and accidental falls were the main cause of death among people aged over 75 years old. The death rate of road traffic accidents in urban elderly residents showed an increasing trend(AAPC=3.1%, P<0.001), the suicide and drowning death rates in the elderly residents in rural areas showed a decreasing trend(AAPC was －6.4%,－2.1% respectively, all P<0.05). Conclusions The injury death rate of the elderly residents in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021 showed an increasing trend, especially the accidental fall standardized death rate, which is the future focus of elderly injury intervention in Jiangsu Province.

Key words: aged, injury-caused death, trend analysis

中图分类号:

R 195
R 211

杜文聪, 杨冰沫, 俞浩, 吴洵, 周金意, 陶然. 2012—2021年江苏省老年人主要伤害死亡变化趋势[J]. 实用老年医学, 2025, 39(2): 191-196.

DU Wencong, YANG Bingmo, YU Hao, WU Xun, ZHOU Jinyi, TAO Ran. Trends of injury-caused deaths among the elderly in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021[J]. Practical Geriatrics, 2025, 39(2): 191-196.

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