老年浅表食管鳞癌淋巴结转移的预测研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-9198.2026.02.013

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To develop and validate a predictive model for lymph node metastasis (LNM) risk in elderly patients with superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESC) using clinicopathological variables. Methods The clinical data of 539 SESC patients aged >65 years undergoing curative esophagectomy in Jiangsu Province Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. The patients from January 2010 to September 2014 were enrolled in training group(n=366), and the patients from December 2014 to September 2016 were enrolled in validation group(n=173). Multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify the independent risk factors for LNM in training group.A nomogram model was established for predicting LNM risk and validated in validation group. Results In training group,53 patients presented with LNM, compared with 30 cases in validation group. The independent risk factors for LNM included larger tumor size,poor tumor differentiation,deeper invasion depth,presence of angiolymphatic invasion.The model got a good performance with the area of the curve of 0.80 (95%CI: 0.74-0.86) in training cohort,and 0.81 (95%CI: 0.72-0.90) in validation cohort. Conclusions This validated four-variable nomogram provides a clinically applicable tool for quantifying LNM risk in elderly SESC patients.

Key words: lymph node metastasis, superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, risk predictive model, aged

CLC Number:

R 735.1

CAO Yaolin, HUANG Yuming, YANG Jinpeng, WANG Wei, ZHOU Yue, LI Menglan. Predictive study of lymph node metastasis in elderly patients with superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma[J]. Practical Geriatrics, 2026, 40(2): 169-173.

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Predictive study of lymph node metastasis in elderly patients with superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

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